25% of US consumers expect to increase holiday spending, Cyber Monday remains hot.

Event Overview

It is still months before the 2026 holiday shopping season, but U.S. consumers’ shopping plans are already emerging. According to Salsify’s *2026 Holiday Pulse Report*, a quarter of U.S. consumers expect to spend more this holiday season than last year, while enthusiasm for Cyber Monday remains high, with 61% of respondents planning to participate.

Market Background

The report covered a total of 1,212 consumers across the U.S., the U.K., and Canada (412 from the U.S., 400 from the U.K., and 400 from Canada), with data collected between March 20 and 24, 2026. The results show a notable rebound in U.S. consumer spending expectations: 25% expect to increase spending, compared to just 17% in 2025. In the U.K. and Canada, 26% and 18% of consumers, respectively, said they would increase their budgets.

In terms of shopping timing, consumers are planning ahead more: 19% of respondents started purchasing gifts between January and April (just after the previous holiday season), an increase of 4 percentage points from 2025; 17% plan to shop in the summer. Within the traditional peak period, 16% choose to start in October and 25% in November. Fewer than 10% of consumers wait until December to make hasty purchases.

Platform and Brand Impact

Shopping Channel Preferences - Black Friday: 73% of consumers plan to participate, with online, offline, and hybrid channel distribution similar to previous years. Among them, 65% will do some online shopping, while physical stores remain an important venue. - Cyber Monday: 61% of consumers plan to shop, unchanged from 2025. Notably, although the proportion of daily online shopping dropped from 21% in 2025 to 9% in 2026 (according to Salsify’s latest consumer survey), Cyber Monday seems unaffected. 36% of consumers believe this year’s Cyber Monday discounts are better value (compared to 27% in 2025).

Product Discovery Channels Physical stores remain the top choice: 60% of consumers discover new products and brands through physical stores, and 59% find gift inspiration in stores. 42% get gift ideas from friends/family wish lists, and 39% search for recommendations on online marketplaces like Amazon.

Tariff Impact Faced with trade tariffs, 30% of consumers prefer locally made products, while 29% actively try to buy more local gifts. This trend may prompt retailers and brands to adjust their product selection strategies, prioritize promoting domestically manufactured goods, and strengthen marketing communication around the "local" label.

AI Shopping Tools Acceptance of AI tools continues to rise: 54% of consumers believe AI shopping assistants (such as chatbots, gift guides) can improve the holiday shopping experience (compared to 50% in 2025). Outside the holiday season, 64% of consumers already use AI tools for product discovery and research. Brands and platforms need to accelerate AI feature integration to enhance user engagement.## Consumer Trend Analysis 1. Increased Spending Willingness: U.S. consumer confidence is rebounding, coupled with expectations of easing inflation, driving budget increases. 2. Earlier Shopping Plans: Over 30% of consumers started shopping before summer; retailers need to plan marketing and inventory in advance. 3. Rationalized Discount Expectations: Cyber Monday's perceived value has increased, but consumers are no longer simply chasing the "lowest price"; instead, they focus more on overall deals. 4. Parallel Trends of Localism and AI: Tariffs are fueling a "buy domestic" tendency, while AI becomes a new link for product discovery, reshaping the shopping decision path together.

Regional Market Impacts - United States: Strongest spending growth expectations (25%); Black Friday’s 65% online share confirms digital retail maturity. A 60% in-store discovery rate shows omnichannel is irreplaceable. - United Kingdom: 26% of consumers increased spending, in line with the U.S.; but local shopping preferences may be affected by post-Brexit trade policies. - Canada: 18% expect to increase spending, relatively conservative, possibly due to economic slowdown and spillover effects from U.S. tariffs.

Future Trends 1. Extended Holiday Season: Early shopping becomes the norm; retailers need to launch promotions from mid-year to avoid over-reliance on the November peak. 2. AI Integration into Mainstream: AI shopping tools shift from "novelty" to "standard feature"; platforms may roll out personalized recommendations, virtual try-ons, and other deeper applications. 3. Localization Priority: Amid tariff uncertainty, cross-border sellers need to assess localized supply chains or attract consumers with "locally made" labels. 4. Redefinition of Physical Stores: As product discovery and experience centers, physical stores will coordinate more closely with online channels; brands need to optimize the O2O loop. 5. Payment Methods and Logistics: With changing cross-border consumption, fulfillment systems supporting local currencies and convenient returns will become competitive focal points.

In summary, the 2026 holiday season shows characteristics of "earlier, more rational, and more localized." Brands and platforms must adopt a data-driven approach to dynamically adjust marketing calendars, inventory strategies, and technology investments in order to seize growth opportunities during the window of rising consumer willingness.